For the second day straight, Bitcoin is up while equities fall. Is this the beginning of a decoupling from traditional markets?
@SmartContracter picked up on this trend yesterday by saying:
“was very surprised to see this today, but there is nothing i would like more than to see btc break its correlation with equities.”
However, he tweeted again today to say the pattern has repeated. What’s more, he added that the current market dynamic, of a clear delineation between Bitcoin and the alts, is also an infrequent occurrence.
Parallels were drawn with the April Fool’s pump of 2019 when Bitcoin jumped from $3k to as high as $14k over a three month period.
With that, he predicts that a continuation past $12.5k will see the same thing happen again.
2 days in a row now #btc up and equities down, shits getting real interesting now,
i also cant remember the last time btc pumped and alts outright dumped, in fact i believe it was back when btc broke 4k in april 2019, probably a sign of whats to come if/when $btc breaks 12.5k pic.twitter.com/V2lfjnPR9T
— 👨🌾Benjamin Bluntz👨🌾 (@SmartContracter) October 20, 2020
Typically, a weak dollar equates to both Bitcoin and equities pumping. However, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a 28-month low, equities have bucked the trend by also falling with the dollar.
Bitcoin is The Talk of The Town
A strong performance by Bitcoin sees it up 8% over the past week. Currently, the price of BTC is $12.3k, tantalizingly close to stiff overhead resistance at the $12.5k mark.
Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
But what’s particularly interesting is how equities are fairing during this same period.
Although it’s too soon to call just yet, the much-fabled decoupling from traditional markets may be happening right now.
Analyst Willy Woo has spoken about this subject in the past. He predicts that a falling stock market will eventually break its correlation with Bitcoin.
After this, Bitcoin will rebound to higher prices, leaving traditional markets behind.
“The current stock market looks very vulnerable. If the plunge continues, Bitcoin will decouple from the stock market in the next few months. People will be surprised if that happens. After the Bitcoin halving and the amount of derivatives trading The reduction has fundamentally alleviated the selling pressure of Bitcoin against the bullish fundamentals of anti-inflation hedges.”
What’s more, a recent tweet from Woo foresees this happened soon. He argues that mass adoption, and thus the decoupling, will come initially from the HODLers.
But, newbies will be drawn in when realizing the benefits of holding Bitcoin. In turn, the adoption pattern will form an s-curve, similar to the growth seen with startups.
Bitcoin will decouple from traditional markets soon, but driven by its internal adoption s-curve (think startup style growth) rather than changes in perceptions as a hedging instrument by traditional investors.
Fundamentals of user adoption have already broken all time highs.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 24, 2020
Nobody Wants an Economic Crash, Not Even Crypto Diehards
Many crypto investors became disillusioned when Bitcoin crashed along with stocks, over the panic situation in March this year.
What was supposed to be a hedge against traditional markets showed itself to be highly correlated, at that time.
All the same, if what Woo says is accurate, that will soon no longer be the case.
However, based on his comments, the growth of Bitcoin will be at the expense of a deep economic recession.
Perhaps that’s inevitable, maybe we’ve come too far to prevent that. But purely from a fear of the unknown, no-one in their right mind wants to see an economic crash.